Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Local Government Earnings Growth
Across Kansas Counties
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
Kansas:
2010-2022 = 2.15%
2022 = 2.38%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real local government earnings growth across all of Kansas' 105 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Kansas Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real local government earnings growth of Kansas' 105 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
Kansas:
2010-2022 = 2.15%
2022 = 2.38%
This figure displays the 105 counties of Kansas as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real local government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real local government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real local government earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.15%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.15% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.15%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 44 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 50 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 41 counties whose most recent (2022) real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.38%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 53 counties whose real local government earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 105 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.15% over 2010-2022 and 2.38% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.15%) and near-term (2.38%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.15%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Kansas average (2.38%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.15%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.38%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.15%) and near-term (2.38%).
   
 
Summary of Kansas' 105 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.38%)
Above
(2.38%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.15%)
21
23
44
Below
(2.15%)
32
18
50
 
53
41
94
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Kansas:
2010-2022 = 2.15%
2022 = 2.38%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Kansas counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Kansas' average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.15%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.38%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Kansas' 105 counties, 23 (22%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Kansas:
2010-2022 = 2.15%
2022 = 2.38%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 21 Kansas counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.15%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 2.38%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 21 (20%) of Kansas' 105 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Kansas:
2010-2022 = 2.15%
2022 = 2.38%
This figure shows the distribution of the 18 Kansas counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.15%), while they outpaced Kansas' average near-term (2022 = 2.38%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Kansas' 105 counties, 17% (18) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Kansas:
2010-2022 = 2.15%
2022 = 2.38%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 32 Kansas counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.15%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.38%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
30% of Kansas' counties, 32 of 105, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Kansas
Real* Local Government Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
41
2.25
 
21
3.80
22,448
 
20
2.77
 
35
2.72
32,246
 
34
2.37
 
12
4.61
50,740
 
40
2.31
 
3
9.86
9,913
 
15
3.00
 
28
3.35
24,058
 
38
2.34
 
31
3.03
167,812
 
18
2.81
 
2
10.85
9,063
 
23
2.66
 
15
4.44
128,833
 
33
2.37
 
30
3.06
18,214
 
4
4.48
 
20
3.97
18,010
 
11
3.16
 
14
4.51
34,977
 
36
2.36
 
25
3.57
153,248
 
6
3.76
 
8
5.59
24,403
 
9
3.36
 
27
3.42
93,774
 
32
2.37
 
1
11.75
18,977
 
21
2.75
 
16
4.36
62,856
 
17
2.87
 
5
7.20
12,731
 
26
2.50
 
39
2.50
47,135
 
39
2.33
 
18
4.13
1,448,222
 
44
2.15
 
32
2.96
17,717
 
22
2.74
 
11
4.72
29,659
 
7
3.63
 
9
5.04
10,132
 
31
2.39
 
7
6.10
740,553
Slipping Counties
 
30
2.41
 
53
1.62
108,349
 
14
3.11
 
54
1.61
47,036
 
43
2.15
 
98
-6.49
10,805
 
25
2.54
 
74
0.76
32,513
 
12
3.14
 
47
2.01
20,183
 
8
3.38
 
84
-0.23
13,227
 
24
2.55
 
96
-4.81
34,256
 
19
2.78
 
51
1.89
123,662
 
37
2.35
 
46
2.06
198,901
 
10
3.31
 
61
1.37
32,646
 
5
3.87
 
94
-2.42
14,900
 
42
2.17
 
90
-1.55
44,902
 
13
3.11
 
85
-0.49
28,789
 
1
10.02
 
44
2.30
34,599
 
27
2.47
 
88
-1.20
130,748
 
2
6.50
 
80
-0.06
20,446
 
35
2.36
 
52
1.75
32,865
 
29
2.45
 
58
1.43
93,757
 
16
2.97
 
89
-1.33
20,954
 
3
4.70
 
56
1.58
7,964
 
28
2.45
 
82
-0.21
46,779
Gaining Counties
 
81
1.45
 
26
3.49
65,781
 
73
1.63
 
40
2.48
40,854
 
89
0.34
 
34
2.83
59,826
 
57
1.97
 
36
2.61
253,621
 
45
2.14
 
22
3.70
9,977
 
46
2.09
 
10
4.82
151,079
 
50
2.05
 
23
3.61
76,263
 
79
1.51
 
24
3.60
35,579
 
68
1.72
 
6
6.42
99,744
 
80
1.49
 
43
2.43
48,478
 
48
2.06
 
42
2.43
1,821,034
 
53
2.03
 
29
3.24
38,158
 
51
2.04
 
38
2.50
47,410
 
74
1.61
 
37
2.58
115,401
 
94
-2.94
 
41
2.44
17,179
 
47
2.07
 
33
2.89
18,549
 
87
0.68
 
17
4.16
19,108
 
83
1.43
 
13
4.54
33,681
Lagging Counties
 
86
1.11
 
55
1.60
52,130
 
69
1.70
 
77
0.30
8,712
 
82
1.43
 
72
0.88
32,978
 
78
1.53
 
93
-2.18
56,076
 
90
0.13
 
99
-35.62
52,671
 
63
1.82
 
83
-0.23
38,835
 
67
1.75
 
95
-3.21
8,804
 
71
1.68
 
78
0.18
153,461
 
88
0.42
 
79
0.07
78,974
 
76
1.57
 
50
1.93
127,718
 
72
1.66
 
64
1.21
14,690
 
92
0.06
 
63
1.32
27,308
 
58
1.96
 
91
-1.56
38,606
 
62
1.86
 
65
1.18
5,324
 
93
-0.42
 
73
0.77
10,127
 
65
1.78
 
81
-0.21
96,616
 
54
2.03
 
87
-0.89
27,158
 
55
2.02
 
86
-0.80
13,938
 
85
1.23
 
60
1.38
21,469
 
56
2.00
 
69
1.00
14,921
 
64
1.79
 
49
1.95
92,660
 
77
1.56
 
66
1.17
29,317
 
91
0.10
 
92
-1.58
23,490
 
70
1.69
 
48
2.01
24,908
 
60
1.90
 
62
1.34
48,645
 
52
2.04
 
70
0.96
36,450
 
84
1.32
 
57
1.43
209,931
 
61
1.88
 
97
-5.43
23,668
 
49
2.05
 
59
1.41
183,258
 
66
1.78
 
45
2.07
613,769
 
59
1.92
 
75
0.57
13,041
 
75
1.57
 
67
1.16
31,135
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
481,267
 
U
U
 
4
7.53
12,445
 
U
U
 
S
S
10,557
 
U
U
 
68
1.08
88,262
 
U
U
 
19
4.00
32,789
 
U
U
 
S
S
21,936
 
U
U
 
76
0.30
17,016
 
U
U
 
S
S
168,132
 
U
U
 
71
0.94
15,018
 
U
U
 
S
S
15,479
 
U
U
 
S
S
13,282
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.15
 
2.38
10,312,695
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.47
 
2.84
1,199,218,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620320_LSGL
 
   
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