St. Joseph MSA vs. Kansas Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction St. Joseph MSA: 2022 Population = 119,690 2022 Percent of State = 0.04% Kansas: 2022 Population = 2,937,150 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.88% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the St. Joseph MSA with comparisons to Kansas and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the St. Joseph MSA vs. Kansas' population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks the St. Joseph MSA's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the St. Joseph MSA's population rose from 116,758 in 1969 to 119,690 in 2022, for a net gain of 2,932, or 2.51%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Kansas' annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Kansas' population rose from 2,236,000 in 1969 to 2,937,150 in 2022, for a net gain of 701,150, or 31.36%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays the St. Joseph MSA's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Kansas, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The St. Joseph MSA's overall population growth was 2.51% over 1969-2022 trailed Kansas' increase of 31.36%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Kansas Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of the St. Joseph MSA is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Kansas' statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Kansas' population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, the St. Joseph MSA's population comprised 5.22% of Kansas' population, while in 2022 it equated to 4.08% thereby yielding a -1.15% share-shift.
St. Joseph MSA Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of the St. Joseph MSA's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the St. Joseph MSA's population grew at an annual rate of 0.05% over 1970-2022. The St. Joseph MSA recorded its highest growth in 2000 (2.04%) and posted its lowest growth in 2019 (-2.17%). In 2022, the St. Joseph MSA's population declined by -0.93% St. Joseph MSA Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in the St. Joseph MSA's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the St. Joseph MSA's annual population growth rate averaged 0.24%. It averaged -0.31% in the 1980s, 0.48% throughout the 1990s, 0.44% during the 2000s, -0.39% in the 2010s, -0.65% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the St. Joseph MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Kansas and the nation. As the chart reveals, the St. Joseph MSA's average annual population growth posted below Kansas' average throughout the 1970s (0.24% vs. 0.49%), recorded under Kansas' average during the 1980s (-0.31% vs. 0.52%), amounted to less than Kansas' average in the 1990s (0.48% vs. 0.80%), trailed Kansas' average in the 2000s (0.44% vs. 0.56%), amounted to less than Kansas' average throughout the 2010s (-0.39% vs. 0.35%), and amounted to less than Kansas' average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.65% vs. 0.04%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the St. Joseph MSA trailed the nation over the 1970s (0.24% vs. 1.10%), trailed the nation during the 1980s (-0.31% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation throughout the 1990s (0.48% vs. 1.23%), fell below the nation in the 2000s (0.44% vs. 0.95%), lagged the nation in the 2010s (-0.39% vs. 0.74%), and posted below the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.65% vs. 0.31%).
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