Lincoln County vs. Kansas Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Lincoln County: 2022 Population = 2,899 2022 Percent of State = 0.10% Kansas: 2022 Population = 2,937,150 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.88% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Lincoln County with comparisons to Kansas and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Lincoln County vs. Kansas' population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Lincoln County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Lincoln County's population dropped from 4,632 in 1969 to 2,899 in 2022, for a net loss of -1,733, or -37.41%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Kansas' annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Kansas' population rose from 2,236,000 in 1969 to 2,937,150 in 2022, for a net gain of 701,150, or 31.36%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Lincoln County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Kansas, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Lincoln County's overall population growth was -37.41% over 1969-2022 trailed Kansas' increase of 31.36%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Kansas Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Lincoln County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Kansas' statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Kansas' population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Lincoln County's population comprised 0.21% of Kansas' population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.10% thereby yielding a -0.11% share-shift.
Lincoln County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Lincoln County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Lincoln County's population contracted at an annual rate of -0.87% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1977 (1.11%) and posted its lowest growth in 1980 (-3.66%). In 2022, Lincoln County's population declined by -0.28% Lincoln County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Lincoln County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Lincoln County's annual population growth rate averaged -0.76%. It averaged -1.46% during the 1980s, -0.31% throughout the 1990s, -0.96% throughout the 2000s, -1.02% during the 2010s, -0.35% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Lincoln County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Kansas and the nation. As the chart reveals, Lincoln County's average annual population growth amounted to less than Kansas' average during the 1970s (-0.76% vs. 0.49%), amounted to less than Kansas' average during the 1980s (-1.46% vs. 0.52%), fell below Kansas' average in the 1990s (-0.31% vs. 0.80%), amounted to less than Kansas' average in the 2000s (-0.96% vs. 0.56%), trailed Kansas' average during the 2010s (-1.02% vs. 0.35%), and trailed Kansas' average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.35% vs. 0.04%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Lincoln County trailed the nation over the 1970s (-0.76% vs. 1.10%), posted below the nation over the 1980s (-1.46% vs. 0.95%), trailed the nation in the 1990s (-0.31% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation in the 2000s (-0.96% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation in the 2010s (-1.02% vs. 0.74%), and fell below the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.35% vs. 0.31%).
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